Quick election prediction

[dougo]

Recording this here for posterity:

After this coming election, the stock market will go down. I think a Democrat takeover of Congress has already been priced into the market. If they do win both houses, it will come down a little bit due to profit-taking; if they win one house but not the other, it will come down a fair amount, although it might go back up because the market likes governmental gridlock; but if the Republicans keep both houses, it will be a large crash.

I guess this means I should short some stocks, but I'm not a gambler, and more importantly, I have no real idea what I'm talking about. This is just a wild hunch. But it's kind of fun to make public predictions based on wild hunches.

Comments

[jtemperance.livejournal.com]

I expect stocks to go down in the next few years anyway, just because they're valued too high, but I'm not prepared to bet on the timing of when they'll go down.