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Recording this here for posterity:
After this coming election, the stock market will go down. I think a Democrat takeover of Congress has already been priced into the market. If they do win both houses, it will come down a little bit due to profit-taking; if they win one house but not the other, it will come down a fair amount, although it might go back up because the market likes governmental gridlock; but if the Republicans keep both houses, it will be a large crash.
I guess this means I should short some stocks, but I'm not a gambler, and more importantly, I have no real idea what I'm talking about. This is just a wild hunch. But it's kind of fun to make public predictions based on wild hunches.
After this coming election, the stock market will go down. I think a Democrat takeover of Congress has already been priced into the market. If they do win both houses, it will come down a little bit due to profit-taking; if they win one house but not the other, it will come down a fair amount, although it might go back up because the market likes governmental gridlock; but if the Republicans keep both houses, it will be a large crash.
I guess this means I should short some stocks, but I'm not a gambler, and more importantly, I have no real idea what I'm talking about. This is just a wild hunch. But it's kind of fun to make public predictions based on wild hunches.
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From:
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At market close on Friday, Nov 10, the Dow will be at 11,950 if the Dems win both houses, 11,800 if the Dems win one house, 11,500 if the Republicans keep both houses, and 11,200 if the Republicans actually gain seats in either house (in which case there will be the chaos of vote tampering allegations).
I suppose to be complete I should also predict how the election will go. I guess the safe bet is to say the Dems take one house. But I would actually not be surprised if the Republicans keep both houses, just barely. I don't trust the polls (and/or the voting machines) after the Kerry exit poll thing in 2004.