Quick election prediction

[dougo]

Recording this here for posterity:

After this coming election, the stock market will go down. I think a Democrat takeover of Congress has already been priced into the market. If they do win both houses, it will come down a little bit due to profit-taking; if they win one house but not the other, it will come down a fair amount, although it might go back up because the market likes governmental gridlock; but if the Republicans keep both houses, it will be a large crash.

I guess this means I should short some stocks, but I'm not a gambler, and more importantly, I have no real idea what I'm talking about. This is just a wild hunch. But it's kind of fun to make public predictions based on wild hunches.

Comments

[mshonle.livejournal.com]

The Democrats will take Congress, but not the Senate. The market won't do much of anything because of the elections. A new report about inflation or the housing market, however, will.