Colin Powell's resignation

[dougo]

Shortly after 9/11, Strauss & Howe posted to their Fourthturning.com forum about whether the Fourth Turning was starting early. In retrospect, it's clear that it was more of a "shift toward the nastier edge of a Third Turning mood", and that Bush's "easy deference to a Silent-dominated board of advisors" was an important restraint preventing a plunge into full-on Crisis Era. With Colin Powell's departure, the coolest head is gone, and I think the only Silent-generation advisors left are Rumsfeld and Cheney (who spent part of the weekend in the hospital). Bush's Cabinet re-org is acknowledged as an attempt to "'control the government, not just the White House' in the second term and to give the president 'an enhanced ability to control the broad sweep of policy undertaken in the second term.'" Together with his purging of the CIA, we're headed toward an ideologically—and, not a coincidence, generationally—pure administration. This seems like a recipe for the "Crisis of 2020" to arrive well ahead of schedule (much like the Civil War).

Comments

[jfb.livejournal.com]

Of all my friends, I would've pegged you as maybe the least likely to join a cult.

[dougo.livejournal.com]

I could have sworn you said this to me before, but I'm completely failing to find it on my journal. (Maybe it was in someone else's?) Anyway, I'll repeat what I thought I responded with that time: it's not a cult, it's just a theory. You know, like evolution.

Which friend would you've pegged as maybe the most likely to join a cult?

[jfb.livejournal.com]

Ken.

It felt familiar to me too. Sorry, it's just the jargon that makes me laugh.

[dougo.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I blame the Boomers for all the Capitalized Concepts. The basic idea is simply that American history is cyclic, at a macro level, based on generational patterns. I don't fully believe in generational identity—it feels a little like the zodiac, except with four 22-year periods instead of twelve months—but it's at least plausible, and it's fascinating to watch how events fit the theory (or don't).

Which cult do you think Ken will join? Should we start a pool?